Yan Boulanger (Canadian Forest Service) and colleagues recently published a study on model predictions of future spruce budworm outbreaks. The study compared predictions and model uncertainty using a variety of data sets and correlative methods, multiple forcing scenarios, and different time scales. The consensus model predicted a northward shift in spruce budworm outbreaks and a decrease in outbreak duration. Individual model prediction was highly variable depending on the predictor data set and correlative methodology, but was not strongly affected by changes in forcing scenarios.
Boulanger, Y, DR Gray, BJ Cooke, LD Grandpré (2015) Model-specification uncertainty in future forest pest outbreak. Global Change Biology, doi: 10.1111/gcb.13142